Since Pakistans Foreign Minister does not control a substantial part of Pakistans Foreign Policy , i.e the Afghanistan and India policy ,thus the visit of Pakistans army chief to USA for a so called strategic dialogue.
The word strategic would be a bit inflated since in reality Pakistan does the tactical garbage collection for USA.
Pakistan’s military establishment has survived and thrived because of Afghanistans ongoing Afghan wars since 1979. First from December 1979 and secondly from 9/11. In both cases both Pakistani military juntas of Zia and Musharraf were internationally as well as domestically isolated orphans with no legitimate fathers real or deceased.Pakistan was thus if not a banana republic, then a pistachio republic.
How can some so called leading Pakistani analysts dub Afghanistan as Pakistans backyard. An independent state with a great history. Seen in this context how would Pakistanis feel if India tries to make Pakistan its backyard ?
How can Pakistan or for that matter any of Afghanistans neighbours be allowed to have a louder voice in Afghanistan? One may suggest that any analyst who says so is hinting towards crude and anachronistic concepts like strategic depth. One may hypothesise that Afghanistan can proves to be Pakistans Achille’s Heel rather any opportunist, if Pakistan continues to interfere in Afghanistans internal affairs through proxies, whatever any one may call them!
This may happen not in the immediate future but when the USA withdraws from Afghanistan or if the USA decides to embark on another Afghan strategy which views Pakistan as part of the problem rather than a solution.As they say history does not move in straight lines!
The Pakistani military junta of General Zia with the stated aim of Jihad and the real aim of political survival had chosen to follow a policy of active interference in Afghanistans internal affairs as a Saudi or US proxy back in 1979-88.
Lately the Pakistani state or Pakistans establishment re-discovered the sanctity of Afghan border , badly shaken by a tribal war in its FATA and Balochistan areas and blamed India,Israel and even USA and NATO for aiding anti Pakistan groups like TTP and BLA. Acts which Pakistan was actually doing all along in Afghanistan right from 1978!
One is at a loss to understand which comprehensive border planning do some Pakistani analysts talk about when referring to the Afghan Pakistan border when the entire 800 km Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Pakistani Balochistan province has sparse Pakistani military presence and Talibans from Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul and Fara , where the vast bulk of US forces are stationed, freely move back and forth? I refer to the so called good Taliban.
The ongoing FATA operation of Pakistan Army has in no way attacked the vast bulk Of Taliban based in Afghanistan the FATA Taliban being a mere 5 to 6 % of the Taliban . Even the USA despite much trumpeting and bravado has hardly touched any of these Taliban in South Afghanistan apart from few symbolic media efforts like Marjah.US policy in Afghanistan seems ambiguous.
Does the USA sees the Taliban in South Afghanistan as future proxies against Iran,Russia,Central Asian Republics and even China ?
It is again debatable to state that Pakistani military presence in FATA is a position of strength when all along from Operation Curzon in 1948 i.e the regular armys withdrawal from FATA till the 2003 Musharraf Quixotic FATA faux pas ,the FATA was controlled by Pakistani state without a single regular soldier ? Anad above all this area called FATA was Pakistans major logistic and military base in aiding insurgents called Mujahideen fighting against the de facto government of Afghanistan from 1978 till 1992 !
The fact remains that Pakistans military presence in FATA is a retrogressive step with no victory in sight.
The fact remains that Pakistani state has been bogged down and sunk knee deep in two insurgencies in FATA and Balochistan since 2003 and 2006.Two insurgencies which have a nominal connection with Talibans 90 % bulk concentrated in South Afghanistan. Those who have read and digested history and its lessons in Pakistan fear the fact that the fast eroding image of Pakistans security forces as vassals of USA fighting Muslims is the most serious threat to Pakistans existence.Perceptions can be dangerous even if they may not represent the entire reality.Pakistan is sliding towards Yugoslavisation if not Somalisation.
The hard reality that the Pakistani establishment needs to understand is that the role of Pakistan may not be decisive or even central in Afghanistans future.Pakistan needs to concentrate seriously on its internal issues that is social justice and equality , at individual and provincial level.
Not much should be expected from the forthcoming US Pakistan strategic dialogue! It is neither strategic nor a dialogue! Pakistans needs an internal dialogue which is sadly non existent!
